Despite several risks that have emerged in recent months, financial markets continue to maintain themselves. These risks include inflation that is not decreasing at the same pace as before, an increase in bank failures in the United States, a slowdown in the global economy, and a rebound in the Chinese economy that is not as significant as expected. The tightening of credit in the United States is also a cause for concern, as it has reached levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Investors anticipate a soft landing for the economy, a 75 basis point reduction in Fed rates by the end of the year, and an end to risks associated with the banking sector.
The price of gold continues to benefit from the decline in the US dollar since the end of last year and recent bank failures, but its value still experiences significant fluctuations. In the short term, a significant economic downturn could lead to a rise in the value of the US dollar, which could have a negative impact on the price of gold. However, concerns about the stability of the global financial system also contribute to the rise in the value of gold.
According to the french dealer Comptoir National de l’Or, it is difficult to imagine a positive development that could cause the price of gold to fall, as it is considered a safe haven investment. The geopolitical tensions, such as the Sino-American conflict and the war in Ukraine, which is funded by Western powers, are expected to persist. Although the price of gold can vary sharply depending on crises and the euro-dollar exchange rate, it has reached new heights, with a 4.81% increase in the value of an ounce of gold over the past year.
Physical gold is a popular safe haven investment, even though it does not guarantee invested capital or distribute income through simple ownership. Investors have the choice between coins and bars, with a daily price available on the Loomis FX Gold and Services website. Coins may have a premium due to their historical significance, while bars may be more difficult to sell since they are not easily fractionable like a small Napoleon gold coin of a few grams of gold. It is recommended to handle coins and bars as little as possible and store them in a secure location, such as a safe at home, at the bank, or with an intermediary. In France, gold investment is subject to a tax when sold, with the choice between a flat tax of 11.5% or the capital gains tax, which benefits from a 5% deduction for each year of ownership starting from the third year. A detailed invoice is important to prove the date and acquisition price of gold coins and benefit from the capital gains tax.