We are roughly a day away from the end of October 2021 and you have to think gold won’t do what it has so often done before: End the month at a higher price than it started it.
As many have noted in these pages, September and October has proved to be a great month for gold over the decades. Frank Holmes recently pointed out that in the past 20 years the price of gold has improved through the month three quarters of the time.
It was only in 1996, 2000, 2006, 2011 and last year that gold put in a disappointing performance. This year it is set to do so again and chip away at its September record, which since 1969 stands at an average return of 2.16 percent, according to Holmes.
So, there is some heavy – and highly improbable – work cut out for it to surprise to the upside this September. Moves of ~$100/oz over 24 hours are conceivable. Recall a breathless fall in the price of gold back in 2011 after it had touched near $1,900/oz. Using the PM Fix, gold plunged from $1,876/oz to $1,770/oz August 23-24, 2011.
But it’s hard to see how in this dour market gold can jump such a distance in just day. Indeed, it seems completely ridiculous to suggest it.
So, for gold and October I say: maybe next year.